Finland's Stubb says Russia unlikely to risk a direct attack on NATO

By Ahmet Taş | Wise News Press

HELSINKI, FINLAND — Finnish President Alexander Stubb says he does not believe Russia is likely to risk a direct attack on a NATO member, arguing that the alliance's conventional, missile and nuclear capabilities provide a powerful deterrent.

Speaking to Germany's Bild newspaper, Stubb pushed back against warnings that Russia could be in a position to attack NATO territory by 2029, saying he had seen neither evidence nor facts supporting such a timetable. At the same time, he stressed that NATO should remain prepared for worst-case scenarios rather than interpret his assessment as a reason to lower its guard.

His remarks come amid a broader European security debate over Russia's military rebuilding, suspected hybrid operations and the possibility that the war in Ukraine could eventually produce a more direct confrontation between Moscow and NATO.

Stubb questions warnings of a Russian attack by 2029

German officials and military planners have repeatedly discussed the possibility that Russia could rebuild enough combat power to pose a more serious threat to NATO later this decade.

Stubb, however, questioned attempts to attach a specific date to such a scenario. He told Bild that he saw no factual basis for predictions that Moscow would be ready to attack NATO by 2029 and argued that deliberately testing the world's most powerful military alliance would “make no sense.”

The Finnish president's position does not amount to a claim that Russia poses no threat to Europe. Rather, he draws a distinction between Russia's current military and hybrid activities and the much larger step of launching a conventional attack against NATO territory.

That distinction is also reflected in current alliance assessments. A NATO official said on Aug. 30 that there was no imminent threat of a direct attack, while warning that Russian hybrid activity in Europe was increasing and required continued vigilance.

NATO deterrence is central to Stubb's assessment

Stubb's argument rests heavily on NATO's deterrent strength.

He pointed to the alliance's conventional forces, missile capabilities and nuclear deterrent as reasons Moscow would face overwhelming risks if it attacked a member state. He said NATO must nevertheless prepare for multiple scenarios because credible preparedness is itself part of preventing escalation.

Under NATO's collective-defense framework, an armed attack against one ally can trigger a response involving the wider alliance. That significantly changes the strategic calculation compared with Russia's war against non-NATO member Ukraine.

Stubb also said his assessment was informed by intelligence available to him, although the intelligence itself has not been made public.

His remarks broadly echo comments made by U.S. President Donald Trump days earlier. Trump said he did not expect Russian President Vladimir Putin to attack NATO territory, even as U.S. and European officials continued monitoring possible covert or hybrid Russian operations against alliance members.

Hybrid operations remain a major concern

Even if a conventional invasion of NATO territory is considered unlikely in the immediate term, Western officials remain concerned about activity below the threshold of open war.

Cyberattacks, sabotage, espionage, disinformation and interference with infrastructure have increasingly featured in European warnings about Russian hybrid operations.

NATO said Russia has been stepping up such activity even though the alliance currently sees no imminent direct military attack. The concern is that persistent hybrid operations could produce miscalculation, escalation or an incident serious enough to create a wider confrontation.

Stubb said Russia was also seeking to spread fear among Europeans through information warfare.

That creates a different strategic problem from a conventional invasion: NATO has to deter military aggression while also building resilience against actions that may be deliberately designed to remain below the threshold that would clearly trigger a collective military response.

Stubb points to Russia's losses in Ukraine

The Finnish president also based his assessment on Russia's current military burden in Ukraine.

According to Stubb, Russia is losing approximately 30,000 to 35,000 personnel per month while recruiting about 27,000, figures he used to argue that Moscow would struggle to generate forces for a second major front at the same time. Reuters reported the figures as Stubb's assessment; they should not be treated as an independently verified monthly casualty balance.

Stubb's conclusion was that Russia is already operating in an increasingly difficult manpower environment and would face substantial constraints if it attempted simultaneously to sustain the war in Ukraine and open a new conventional conflict with NATO.

Military casualty estimates in the Russia-Ukraine war vary widely between governments and independent analysts, and neither side publishes complete, independently verifiable real-time figures.

The broader strategic point in Stubb's argument is therefore more important than the precise monthly numbers: Russia remains heavily committed in Ukraine, while a confrontation with NATO would require a fundamentally larger military undertaking.

Finland's view carries weight because it shares a long border with Russia

Stubb's assessment is particularly notable because Finland shares a roughly 1,300-kilometer border with Russia and fundamentally changed its security policy after Moscow's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Finland formally joined NATO on April 4, 2023, becoming the alliance's 31st member after abandoning its long-standing policy of military non-alignment. NATO says Finland's decision followed the changed security environment created by Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022.

Membership placed Finland fully under NATO's collective-defense framework and significantly expanded the alliance's direct land border with Russia.

Stubb therefore combines two positions that might appear contradictory but are central to Finland's current security policy: strong military preparedness and deterrence on the one hand, and resistance to treating a future NATO-Russia war as inevitable on the other.

He has also recently supported stronger Ukrainian military capabilities, including long-range strikes against targets in Russia, drawing criticism from the Kremlin.

Ukraine remains central to Europe's security, Stubb says

Despite his skepticism about an imminent Russian attack on NATO, Stubb argued that Europe cannot afford to weaken its support for Ukraine.

He described Ukraine as Europe's most important security buffer against Russia and warned that a Ukrainian defeat would have consequences far beyond Ukraine itself. According to Reuters, Stubb said continued European assistance to Kyiv was vital and framed Ukraine's survival as directly linked to the security of countries such as Finland and Germany.

His position therefore differs from an argument for reducing defense spending or seeking reassurance from Moscow.

Instead, Stubb's message is that strong deterrence, sustained support for Ukraine and avoiding unnecessary panic can coexist.

For NATO governments, the debate is likely to continue over how quickly Russia could rebuild its forces, how seriously to treat hybrid operations and whether intelligence indicators justify planning around specific timelines such as 2029.

For now, Stubb's assessment is clear: NATO should prepare for the worst, but he sees no evidence that Russia is currently ready or willing to deliberately start a direct war with the alliance. That view is broadly consistent with NATO's current public assessment that no direct attack is imminent, even as the alliance remains concerned about growing hybrid threats.

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