Official data: 80% of Syrians remain in Turkey after Assad

By Masum Gök | Wise News Press

ANKARA, TÜRKIYE — Official data reveals that more than 80 percent of Syrians under temporary protection have chosen to remain in Türkiye, despite the toppling of the Assad regime in Damascus over a year ago.

According to the Directorate of Migration Management, the anticipated mass return of refugees following the political shift in Syria has not materialized, although significant demographic changes have been recorded in border provinces.

Migration trends after regime change

Data indicates that at the end of 2024, when the Assad regime fell, the number of Syrians under temporary protection in Türkiye stood at 2,901,478. As of Jan. 6, 2026, this figure has decreased to 2,329,547.

These statistics show that in the span of more than a year, only 571,931 Syrians have left the country. This corresponds to a return rate of approximately 20 percent, meaning the vast majority of the refugee population continues to reside in Türkiye.

Population decline in border provinces

While the overall return rate remains low, specific border cities have seen a noticeable reduction in their Syrian populations compared to 2023 data. The Directorate's figures highlight a shifting demographic landscape in southern Türkiye:

• Kilis: The province with the highest density saw the Syrian share of its total population drop from 33.98 percent to 23.40 percent.

• Gaziantep: The ratio of Syrians to the total population decreased from 16.71 percent to 13 percent.

• Hatay: The Syrian population share fell significantly from 14.90 percent to 8.67 percent.

• Adana: The ratio dropped from 9.53 percent to 7.19 percent.

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