Could President Erdogan have prevented the invasion of Ukraine?

By Yusuf İnan

Journalist | Political & Strategic Analyst

Who sabotaged Erdogan's historic 2018 move in Ukraine?

MYKOLAIV, UKRAINE — If the historic festival we personally planned to host President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ukraine during the 2018 Eid al-Adha had taken place, today's devastating invasion might not have happened.

As the architect of the project, I am revealing the raw behind-the-scenes details of the sensitive process we conducted with top state officials, and how this strategic move aimed at reinforcing Turkey's global peace key role was systematically blocked by internal and external circles.

If I am asking the question "Could President Erdogan have prevented the invasion of Ukraine?" today, I am giving the answer from within an experienced, witnessed, and unfortunately sabotaged process. Turkey and President Erdogan stand as a miraculous key capable of opening every door and solving crises globally. Had the treacherous coup attempts of December 17-25 and July 15 not occurred, and had Turkey's energy not been drained from within, this peace vision could have been carried to much more advanced levels.

The historic table we set in Mykolaiv

Careful readers of this column know my way of analyzing the behind-the-scenes of events. However, this time the situation is different; because I was the one who set the table. As Fond Inan, we had started preparations for a massive organization in Ukraine during the 2018 Eid al-Adha. Our goal was to organize a "Turkic World / Turkey Festival" under the leadership of our President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, with the participation of the Organization of Turkic States members and the legendary leader of Crimea, Mustafa Abdulcemil Kirimoglu.

Why did we choose the 2018 Eid al-Adha? Because at that time, Fond Inan had received approximately 100,000 sacrificial animal orders. A massive area was to be allocated in the vast pastures at the exit of Mykolaiv city, and these 100,000 sacrifices were to be performed there. Turkic world leaders, the President of Ukraine, and President Erdogan were going to give a message of peace, brotherhood, and sharing to the whole world in front of the global media, accompanied by established barbecue and doner kebab stands. The protocol affairs would be directly managed by the Presidency, and the field operations would be handled personally by assigned Turkish experts. A consortium consisting of three Turkish citizens, one Azerbaijani Turk businessman, and two Ukrainian businessmen was even established to ensure the live animal supply.

The 'Erdogan' guarantee given to Poroshenko

To formalize the process, this strategic project was first presented to the then-President of Ukraine, Petro Poroshenko. Listening carefully to the project, Poroshenko personally assigned the Mykolaiv Head of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), A.A., and his team members A.Y. and I.K. to meet and consult with me for detailed information and security feasibility.

During our meetings, the most critical question directed to me through Poroshenko's team was: "Would President Erdogan really come to such a massive Turkic World Festival?" As the person personally managing the process, I gave this clear answer: "I am one of the founders of the AK Party. I have known President Erdogan for a very long time; I have friends at the Deputy Chairman level in the government. I will deliver this project to the highest authority through them. Our President loves and supports such unifying, historical, and cultural events. I believe one hundred percent that he will participate and lead." The intelligence officials conveyed this guarantee directly to Poroshenko. Everything was ready.

Circle of treason: Why did FETO and Russia unite?

However, such a grand vision of peace and power immediately mobilized the dark structures feeding off the regional status quo. Who didn't want this project? With the announcement of the project, the FETO organization, which had been operating in Ukraine for nearly 30 years and had infiltrated the state's capillaries, immediately stepped in. FETO's Ukraine supervisor and Ahiska managers began working with all their might to sabotage this organization.

The organization's main motivation was clear: President Erdogan would give a historic peace message to the entire global system from Ukraine via world media, proving his power and sphere of influence once again. FETO members decided to block it, saying, "We cannot give Erdogan this opportunity that will shape the world agenda." As someone who closely knows Ukrainian intelligence and its meticulous work, I have no doubt that the SBU knew this sabotage process much better than we did.

So, who else wouldn't want it? Of course, Russia and Vladimir Putin. Putin would never accept Turkey taking the Turkic world leaders behind it and giving a challenging message to the world from Ukraine. Ukraine gaining strong and unshakable allies and the eyes of the whole world turning to Mykolaiv was something Moscow strongly opposed.

Could Russia have invaded if the festival took place?

Now, I am asking that crucial question that could rewrite history: If that festival had taken place during the 2018 Eid al-Adha, could Russia have made the invasion decision in 2022? Could Turkey's presence as a de facto and strong actor in Ukraine have deterred Putin?

My diplomatic readings and field experience show that; in a scenario where the Turkic world, which formed the historical backbone of the Soviet Union, stood shoulder to shoulder with Turkey and shielded Ukraine, Russia would not have dared this invasion. Turkey's deterrence would have turned Moscow's calculations upside down.

Poroshenko's unexplained silence

It is not surprising that Russia, Russian intelligence, and FETO aligned during this blocking process. However, one must wonder: where did the then-President of Ukraine, Petro Poroshenko, stand within this complex web of events?

As the President of Ukraine, he had the state experience to see how much such an organization would strengthen his country, giving it almost a diplomatic immunity armor. He knew all the details of the project firsthand through the SBU. Then, why did he allow this vital project, which was to take place in a few months, to be blocked? Why did Poroshenko mislead Turkey and President Erdogan?

While the Poroshenko administration did not touch the FETO structures in Ukraine and turned a blind eye to their schools and commercial wheels, it merely watched the sabotage of this strategic project, which was a real "lifeline" for his country. Why? Even if it is bitter, we must ask: Did Poroshenko receive a direct threat message from Putin? Or did he succumb to the pressure of internal lobbies?

The Zelenskyy administration must open this file

Looking back today, the price of that missed historic opportunity has been very heavy for the Ukrainian people. If that festival had taken place, hundreds of thousands of Ukraine's dead children might be alive today. Cities would not be in ruins, and millions of people would not have to leave their homes and seek refuge in other countries. Cemeteries would not be a bed for young Ukrainian soldiers.

The setbacks faced by Ukraine and Turkey’s well-intentioned peace efforts deserve a more thorough historical review. It is a historical necessity for the current President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, to open the cover of this file and pursue the unanswered questions. Was there only Russian intelligence or FETO behind this sabotage, or did the Ukrainian bureaucracy of the time personally share in this historical sin? Sooner or later, history will reveal this truth in all its nakedness.

Yusuf İnan

www.wisenewspress.com

Yusuf İnan is a journalist and author. He serves as Editor-in-Chief of WiseNewsPress.com, SehitlerOlmez.com, and YerelGundem.com, and specializes in strategic and political analysis of Turkish and global affairs.