Will the Trump-Xi summit produce a major deal?

By Ahmet Taş | Wise News Press
ANKARA, TÜRKİYE — U.S. President Donald Trump’s visit to China on May 14-15 has placed trade, Taiwan and global security crises at the center of world diplomacy.

According to an analysis reported by DW Turkish, Trump’s meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to carry consequences far beyond bilateral relations. The summit comes at a time when the world’s two largest economies are under pressure to manage disputes over trade, technology, Taiwan, climate policy and ongoing wars in Iran and Ukraine.

The summit is critical for global balance

The relationship between the United States and China remains one of the defining axes of the international system. The U.S. is the world’s largest economy, while China is the second largest. At the same time, China ranks first globally in greenhouse gas emissions, while the United States ranks second.

For that reason, cooperation or confrontation between Washington and Beijing affects the global economy, climate policy, supply chains and international security. The success or failure of the summit will therefore be closely watched not only in the U.S. and China but also in Europe, the Middle East, Russia, Taiwan and global markets.

Trump had previously canceled a planned visit to China in April. His decision to go ahead with the trip on May 14-15 has revived expectations for high-level diplomacy between the two powers.

Both leaders are expected to seek outcomes they can present to their domestic audiences as proof of strength. For Trump, this is especially important ahead of the November midterm elections. The entire U.S. House of Representatives, 33 Senate seats and several governorships will be at stake, making foreign policy success politically valuable for the White House.

Trump is seeking at least a partial trade deal

One of the central issues at the summit will be the U.S.-China trade conflict. Trump’s message to Beijing has been consistent: the world should not only buy Chinese goods; China should also buy more American products to reduce the trade imbalance.

Trump previously imposed high tariffs on Chinese goods because of what he described as unfair trade practices and a large trade deficit. Some of those tariffs were later suspended, but negotiations between the two sides have not yet produced a major breakthrough.

According to the analysis, U.S. Census Bureau data under the Commerce Department showed that China recorded a trade surplus of nearly $202 billion with the United States in 2025. That figure remains a major source of pressure in Washington’s trade policy toward Beijing.

Chinese political scientist Chu Yin of the Pangoal think tank in Beijing said Trump urgently needs positive news on the foreign policy front. He argued that the U.S. president may now have to rely on at least a partial deal in the trade war.

Negotiators from the two countries are expected to seek compromise paths in Seoul before the summit. The U.S. economic team also wants new Chinese orders for American goods, which could give Trump a strong message for the midterm campaign.

Taiwan remains Beijing’s red line

For China, the most sensitive issue in relations with the United States remains Taiwan. Beijing views Taiwan as a breakaway province of the People’s Republic of China and considers the “One China Principle” the foundation of all diplomatic relations.

The United States, however, maintains a complex legal and strategic relationship with Taiwan. The 1979 Taiwan Relations Act authorizes Washington to provide Taiwan with defensive weapons and to respond to threats against the security or social and economic system of the Taiwanese people.

This legal framework has long remained one of the most difficult areas in U.S.-China relations.

During Trump’s second term, which began in January 2025, Taiwan reportedly ordered a record $11.1 billion in weapons systems from U.S. companies. Ahead of Trump’s China visit, Taiwan’s parliament also passed a law on May 8 allowing the purchase of $25 billion worth of American weapons systems by 2033.

Beijing is expected to use all diplomatic leverage to push Trump toward language closer to China’s position on Taiwan. However, Washington’s security support for Taiwan remains central to U.S. strategy in the Asia-Pacific region.

Iran and Ukraine are also on the agenda

The Trump-Xi summit is not expected to be limited to trade and Taiwan. The wars involving Iran and Ukraine are also likely to be major subjects of discussion.

China maintains close ties with both Iran and Russia. Beijing says it strictly complies with all United Nations sanctions, but it also conducts intensive diplomatic contacts with Tehran and Moscow behind closed doors.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi was in Beijing last week. After the meeting, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said China was concerned that the Iran war could threaten regional and global peace. Wang also emphasized China’s support for Iran’s right to use nuclear energy peacefully for civilian purposes.

China also sent a message to Washington by emphasizing the importance of safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. During the ceasefire in the Iran war, the U.S. has also partially blocked passages through the Gulf, according to the analysis.

The war in Ukraine is another major issue. Trump has repeatedly urged China to use its influence over Moscow to help end Russia’s war against Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to be hosted in Beijing by June, further increasing China’s diplomatic importance.

Beijing wants to use its strategic leverage

China may use the current global crisis environment to strengthen its bargaining position. Beijing knows that Washington may need Chinese cooperation on Iran because of regional stability, energy security and maritime trade routes.

It also understands that China’s relationship with Russia gives it influence in discussions over the war in Ukraine. This could provide Beijing with leverage in talks over Taiwan, trade and technology restrictions.

Peter Qiu, a doctoral researcher at the University of Tübingen, said China is prepared to buy American products but also expects something in return. One possible demand could be the easing of U.S. export restrictions on advanced semiconductors used for artificial intelligence.

The United States has imposed strict export controls on high-performance chips designed for machine learning and complex algorithms. Although China is working to develop its own production capabilities, U.S. restrictions have slowed that process.

For Beijing, any trade agreement that includes new Chinese purchases of American goods may therefore need to be balanced by movement on technology access.

A major deal remains possible but uncertain

Whether the summit will produce a comprehensive “major deal” remains uncertain. However, the mutual needs of both sides increase the likelihood of at least a partial agreement.

Trump wants a trade success ahead of the midterm elections. China wants greater stability in economic relations, possible easing of technology restrictions and more cautious U.S. language on Taiwan.

Still, deep mistrust remains between the two powers. The trade deficit, Taiwan, semiconductors, human rights, Iran, Ukraine and global influence cannot be resolved in a single summit.

Even so, the meeting between Trump and Xi will be a key test of whether the world’s two largest economies can manage competition without escalating into deeper confrontation.

The messages from the summit will be closely watched not only in Washington and Beijing but also in Brussels, Moscow, Tehran, Taipei and financial markets worldwide.

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