Trump's 25% Iran tariffs threaten billions in Turkish trade

AHMET TAŞ / WISE NEWS PRESS

ANKARA, TURKEY — President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 25% additional tariff on countries "doing business" with Iran threatens to disrupt Turkey's exports to the United States and inflate domestic energy costs.

The move targets major trading partners like Turkey, China, and India to intensify pressure on Tehran, potentially impacting 6% of Turkey’s total exports while destabilizing critical natural gas imports. According to Prof. Dr. Hakkı Hakan Yılmaz, Center Director at the Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey (TEPAV), this decision has the potential to negatively affect the Turkish economy for the second time since the 2018 sanctions, creating pressure on both trade volume and operational costs.

Strategic pressure over economic rationale

Economist Prof. Dr. Sinan Alçın emphasizes that Trump is using customs tariffs as a tool to shape politics rather than just international economics. Alçın suggests that the primary motivation behind this move is the ongoing pressure policy against Iran by the US and Israel.

While the White House has yet to clarify whether "doing business" includes mal-trade, financial transactions, or energy payments, the uncertainty remains a significant burden for regional markets. Experts believe that the duration of these tariffs will likely depend on the progression of the political climate within Iran and the effectiveness of US regional policies.

Sectors vulnerable to trade disruptions

The risk for Turkey is particularly high in the US market, where export volume is expected to reach $16.5 billion by the end of 2025. If Turkey maintains its trade relations with Iran, its products sold to the US could face a 25% cost increase, severely weakening the price competitiveness of Turkish firms.

Prof. Dr. Hakkı Hakan Yılmaz points out that the machinery, spare parts, and chemical sectors will be the most affected. Machinery and parts currently account for 25-30% of Turkey's exports to Iran, while plastics and chemicals represent 20-25%. Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) operating within Organized Industrial Zones (OIZs) are expected to feel the brunt of this export loss.

Energy costs and domestic impact

Energy remains the most sensitive component of the Turkey-Iran trade relationship. More than 60% of Turkey’s imports from Iran consist of natural gas, totaling approximately 8 billion cubic meters annually. A shift in supply or payment restrictions could create upward pressure on energy prices within Turkey.

Yılmaz notes that in an economic program aimed at the real appreciation of the Turkish Lira, such external shocks could hit exports even harder. The economic impact may be felt as a loss of welfare for households due to rising energy costs and a loss of revenue for the industrial side, marking a new and sharper phase in global trade wars.

www.wisenewspress.com