Ankara prepares for potential Iran strike amid migration fears

BY AHMET TAŞ | WISE NEWS PRESS 

 ANKARA, TURKEY — Turkey has accelerated strategic preparations for a potential US or Israeli strike on Iran, primarily focusing on preventing a mass migration crisis that could further destabilize the region.

The deployment of the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group to the Middle East, which CENTCOM claims is to "support regional security," has prompted Ankara to evaluate worst-case scenarios along its 534-kilometer border. During a closed-door briefing to the TBMM Foreign Affairs Commission, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs reiterated Turkey’s stance against external interventions, citing concerns that a weakened central authority in Tehran could lead to an ethnic civil war.

Preventing a "Second Venezuela"

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has been vocal about the risks of a direct confrontation between Washington and Tehran. In a recent interview with Sky News Arabia, Fidan emphasized that Iran’s stability is vital for the entire region, stretching from the Gulf to Afghanistan.

"I tell my American friends: ‘Do not turn this into a second Venezuela,’" Fidan stated, noting that while Iran is under immense pressure from sanctions, it remains ready for negotiation. He warned that if Tehran feels cornered and stripped of its honor, it will inevitably prepare for the "worst-case scenario," which would have a domino effect on regional security.

Cross-border civilian camp strategy

A primary concern for Ankara is the risk of a massive influx of refugees, similar to the crisis sparked by the Syrian Civil War. To prevent this, sources indicate that Turkey is considering the establishment of "civilian camps" rather than traditional military buffer zones.

The strategy aims to keep potential displaced persons on the Iranian side of the border. While there is currently no significant movement toward the Turkish border, the presence of approximately 2 million Afghan refugees in Iran remains a critical variable. Ankara remains wary of these populations being pushed toward Turkey in the event of an airstrike or internal collapse.

Regional shifts and the Maliki factor

The geopolitical tension is further complicated by political developments in neighboring Iraq. The nomination of former Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki—a figure closely aligned with Tehran—to lead the new Iraqi government has alarmed both Ankara and Washington.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently warned Iraqi Prime Minister Shia al-Sudani that an "Iran-controlled government" would be unable to prioritize Iraq’s interests or distance the country from regional conflicts. Meanwhile, Maliki has fueled tensions by claiming the current Syrian administration has fallen under the influence of Turkey and Israel, adding another layer of complexity to Ankara's regional security calculus.

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Source: DW