Why Iran's stability is critical for Turkey’s national security

BY GÜLSEN SOLAKER | WISE NEWS PRESS 

ANKARA, TURKEY —  Ongoing anti-regime protests in Iran and the threat of US intervention have placed regional stability at risk, creating significant security, migration, and economic challenges for neighboring Turkey.

The Iranian Rial's devaluation and soaring inflation have fueled public defiance against the regime for over three weeks. While internal pressure mounts, the external rhetoric from Washington and Israel has intensified, leading Ankara to monitor the situation with extreme caution. Having already paid a heavy price for the instability in Iraq and Syria, Turkish officials view the territorial integrity and internal peace of Iran as a "matter of life and death."

Expert warnings on potential regime collapse

Foreign policy experts agree that the worst-case scenarios for Turkey involve external military intervention, regime collapse, or the fragmentation of the Iranian state. Mehmet Öğütçü, a former diplomat, emphasizes that Iran has been systematically targeted in recent years, following moves against Hamas, Hezbollah, and Shiite groups in Iraq.

"If the system in Iran collapses and ethnic groups rise, the situation would be more dire than in Syria," Öğütçü warns. "From Azeris and Kurds to Baluchs and Arabs, the mobilization of these groups would create a chaos that directly impacts Turkey."

Similarly, Dr. Oytun Orhan, Levant Studies Coordinator at ORSAM, notes that Iran is significantly larger than Iraq or Syria, suggesting that any instability would have much heavier consequences for the region.

Threat of migration and border security

A major concern for Ankara is the potential for a new wave of migration. Turkey already hosts the world’s largest refugee population, and a breakdown in Iranian authority could turn the 534 km border into a primary route for millions. Experts point out that Iran currently hosts approximately 2 million Afghan refugees who would likely head toward Turkey if the central government loses control.

Beyond humanitarian concerns, there are severe security risks. The Kurdistan Free Life Party (PJAK), an offshoot of the PKK, along with other separatist groups, could find a power vacuum to re-organize. Ankara has long demanded that Tehran cooperate effectively against these organizations, and a weakened central structure in Iran would undermine border security.

Regional power shifts and Israeli interests

The potential weakening of the Iranian regime could also trigger a shift in the regional balance of power. Some analysts argue that if Iran ceases to be a rival to Israel, Turkey might emerge as the only remaining power capable of balancing Israeli influence in the region.

Dr. Oytun Orhan observes that a power vacuum in Syria is already being filled by Turkey, which is increasingly viewed by Israel as a potential threat. However, he differentiates the Turkey-Israel rivalry from the existential enmity between Iran and Israel. "Turkey is a NATO member with multi-dimensional relations with the US," Orhan notes, suggesting that Washington would prefer to keep Turkey-Israel tensions manageable rather than allowing them to escalate into direct conflict.

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