Iraq Votes Tomorrow: Will Sudani Retain His Seat Amid Low Turnout Fears?

WISE NEWS PRESS / BAGHDAD, IRAQ — Nov. 11, 2025

Iraqis are set to vote tomorrow in general elections that cap one of the country's longest periods of stability in recent years, though current Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani is not guaranteed to remain in office despite widespread approval.

More than one million members of Iraq's security forces, along with approximately 27,000 internally displaced persons, cast their ballots early on Sunday for the parliamentary elections. The Iraqi Interior Ministry announced that voting for armed forces personnel, who make up 1.3 million of the 21 million registered voters and will be responsible for security on the main election day, was completed as planned yesterday.

Over 7,740 candidates, nearly one-third of whom are women, are participating in the general election for the 329-seat parliament.

Sudani Expected to Retain Power

The parliament will once again use the former electoral law, reinstated in 2023, which is widely believed to favor larger parties. In the 2021 elections, approximately 70 independent candidates were elected, while only 75 independent candidates are contesting the upcoming vote.

Current Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, who came to power in 2022 with the support of Iran-backed parties, is running for a second term. However, the process of forming a government in Iraq typically takes months, as leaders are chosen through negotiations rather than direct voter mandates. Thus, even if Sudani's bloc wins the election, he will not automatically return as prime minister.

Sudani, who focused on improving public services and brought relative stability during his first term, is expected to form a powerful bloc after the election to remain in office. Since the US invasion in 2003, only one prime minister in Iraq has managed to retain the seat for more than one term. Although he initially came to power with the backing of pro-Iranian parties, Sudani has pursued a policy of balancing relations between Tehran and Washington during his tenure.

The tradition in post-invasion Iraq dictates that the powerful position of prime minister is given to a Shia Muslim, the parliament speaker to a Sunni, and the largely symbolic presidency to a Kurd. The Shia community became the dominant force in Iraqi politics after the US invasion.

Improving Security and Stability

Mohammed Al-Hasan, Head of the UN Assistance Mission for Iraq, recently stated to the UN Security Council, "Iraq today is not the same as it was 20 or even 5 years ago. Iraq today is safer, more stable, and more open." Jon Wilks, the former UK Ambassador to Baghdad, also assessed in a recent article that "security and prosperity trends are generally positive."

According to the latest Gallup Institute surveys, Iraqis' trust in political and state institutions has reached record levels: 55% of respondents indicate they trust the government. Trust in institutions like the police, army, and justice system is also unprecedentedly high.

Voter Mustafa Hussein commented on the improvements, saying, "Corruption is still as bad as before. But things are really being done. I recently had to register my car to get a new license plate, and I was able to do it online. Then two men came and installed the plate at my house. They actually came to my house, it's incredible!"

Low Turnout Expected

Despite optimistic statements about the political and security atmosphere, observers are concerned that voter turnout could fall below the record low of 41% recorded in 2021. Experts note that a significant number of voters are "apathetic and disillusioned," and the highly influential Shia cleric Moqtada al-Sadr has called on his followers to boycott the vote, calling it a "flawed election."

The Sadr-led movement won the most seats in the 2021 election but decided to boycott the system after negotiations with rival Shia parties to form a government were unsuccessful. Furthermore, allegations of corruption and vote buying have surfaced before the election, leading to the disqualification of 848 candidates.

Only 21 million of Iraq's total 32 million eligible voters updated their information and received voter cards this year, down from 24 million in the last parliamentary election in 2021. Additionally, unlike past elections, no polling stations will be set up outside the country this time.

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