Syria’s new equation: The Shara era and the future of armed groups

By Ahmet Taş | Wise News Press

ANKARA, TURKIYE — The rapid political transformation in Syria under the leadership of Ahmed al-Shara is signaling a shift toward a state-centered regional order, raising critical questions about the future of non-state armed actors in the Middle East.

Political analysts and intelligence sources in Ankara suggest that the "New Syria" vision is not merely a change in government but a calculated strategic design supported by global powers including the U.S., Europe, and Russia. This new era, which gained momentum following Shara’s transition from Idlib to Damascus in late 2024, prioritizes institutional stability and economic integration over the previous decade's reliance on militia proxies. Central to this shift is the "Development Road" project, which aims to secure energy corridors and logistics routes, effectively sidelining groups like the SDG and PKK that no longer fit the evolving regional interests of the West.

The Development Road and Energy Parameters

Intelligence sources indicate that the primary driver behind the shift is energy security. Following the conflict in Ukraine, Europe’s urgent need for alternative gas and petrol routes has made the establishment of stable state structures in Syria a necessity. The proposed energy lines integrated with the Development Road project have pivoted Western interest away from organizations like the SDG toward legitimate state frameworks. U.S. Special Envoy Tom Barrack’s recent statement, "Our priority in cooperation will be states," serves as a definitive confirmation of this strategic pivot.

Turkiye's Evolving Regional Policy

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has notably adjusted Turkiye's foreign policy to align with this emerging reality. By resolving long-standing tensions with Egypt and the United Arab Emirates, Ankara has demonstrated a pragmatic shift away from previous ideological stances. Analysts suggest that the SDG failed to grasp this larger geopolitical picture, remaining tethered to maximalist rhetoric while regional dynamics moved toward a Turkiye-Syria rapprochement. Turkiye's firm stance against an autonomous armed structure on its border has gained more international traction as the Shara administration receives recognition at global platforms such as Davos.

Trump’s Administration and the Regional Future

The approach of the Donald Trump administration is perceived as being rooted in cost-benefit analysis and the reduction of military presence. Sources in Ankara are discussing the high probability that after securing energy agreements, the Trump-Barrack team may entrust the oversight of the region to Turkiye’s guardianship. There are ongoing reports that even areas east of the Euphrates are no longer guaranteed for current groups, with rumors circulating that new governors for regions like Hasakah may be appointed without SDG approval, reflecting a new set of agreements that supersede previous promises.

Field Realities and Political Shifts

The shifting loyalty of Arab tribes in Syria and the inability of the PKK/SDG leadership to adapt to field realities have accelerated the transition. Kurdish politicians in the region have noted that the March 10 agreement between Turkiye and Syria effectively sidelined the SDG. Analysts emphasize that jeopardizing the rights and future of the millions of Kurds within Turkiye’s borders for the sake of a non-sustainable autonomous structure in Syria is no longer a viable political path. The consensus in Ankara is that the Middle East is entering a period where traditional state diplomacy will once again dictate the map.

www.wisenewspress.com

Source : Nuray Babacan / Nefes