NATO Chief Warns: Russia Could Attack Alliance Within Five Years

WISE NEWS PRESS / BERLIN, GERMANY — DEC. 12, 2025

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has warned that Russia could attack a NATO alliance country within the next five years, urging Europe to prepare for a conflict on the scale "our grandparents experienced."

Speaking in Germany, Rutte’s warning comes as U.S. President Donald Trump intensifies efforts to end the occupation in Ukraine and as Moscow escalates hybrid threats across Europe. Rutte stressed that the war is just "one door away" and cautioned against complacency among member states.

Moscow’s Intentions vs. Reality

Earlier this month, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that Moscow had no plans for war with Europe but was "ready now" if Europe initiated conflict. Rutte dismissed Putin's sincerity during his speech in Berlin.

Recalling that Moscow gave similar assurances in 2022 shortly before sending 200,000 troops across the Ukrainian border, Rutte said, "If Putin had his way, Ukraine would be under Russian occupation. Russian forces would be right up against a much larger stretch of NATO’s border, and the risk of an armed attack against us would be vastly higher."

Russia’s War Economy and Production Power

Russia’s economy has been operating on a war footing for over three years. According to a report by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Moscow is continuously ramping up the production of drones, missiles, and artillery ammunition.

Data indicates Russia’s monthly production capacity has reached:

• Tanks: Approximately 150 units

  
  

• Armored Combat Vehicles: 550 units

• Lancet-type Drones: 120 units

• Artillery Systems: More than 50

Facing these figures, Rutte insisted that NATO’s defense spending and production must increase rapidly. "Our armed forces must have everything they need to keep us safe," he stated.

Defense Status of NATO Nations

While NATO’s 30 European members, along with the U.S. and Canada, have pledged to increase defense spending under pressure from the Trump administration, closing the production gap with Russia remains a challenge.

Analysts note that the UK and other Western allies lag behind these production levels, and it will take years for Western Europe to match Russia’s mass production capacity. To address personnel shortages, France and Germany have recently taken steps to revive voluntary military service for 18-year-olds.

Hybrid Threats and the 'Grey Zone'

Experts agree that a direct military attack by Russia on a NATO country would create a crisis far surpassing the current "grey zone" tactics.

Over the past year, hybrid warfare tactics—including cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, and drone sightings—targeting NATO countries in Europe have accelerated. Rutte highlighted that Russia is already escalating this "covert campaign" aimed at destabilizing Western societies.

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