Yusuf İnan
Journalist | Opinion Writer
Wise News Press – Izmir, Türkiye

Putin’s 'Plan B' for Kyiv: A crisis of legitimacy and the shadow of a coup

The Russia-Ukraine war has moved from the muddy trenches of the Donbas to the shadowy corridors of political power. Having failed to force a military capitulation after years of conflict, Russian President Vladimir Putin has initiated a new, more insidious phase of hybrid warfare. His target is no longer just the Ukrainian army, but the political existence of the Kyiv administration itself.

By declaring that there is "no point in signing agreements" with Kyiv, Putin is signaling a strategic pivot: weaponizing "legitimacy" to trigger an internal collapse or a coup against Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

The "Legitimacy" Trap: A Diplomatic Dead End

Putin’s recent statement is calculated and dangerous: "The Ukrainian administration... made a fundamental and strategic error by fearing to run for the presidency, and they have lost their legitimate status."

International legal experts and strategists agree that holding elections while missiles rain down on cities is tantamount to suicide for a state. Yet, Putin frames this necessity as "fear." The goal is to plant a seed of doubt in the minds of the Ukrainian public and military elite: Are we dying for a leader who has no legal right to rule?

If a head of state is perceived as illegitimate, any attempt to overthrow them can be marketed by the aggressor not as a coup, but as a "restoration of order."

The Lonely President: Dismantling the Inner Circle

While Moscow pushes this narrative from the outside, the pillars supporting Zelenskyy’s power structure are crumbling from the inside. The liquidation of his two most strategic allies—Andriy Yermak and Rustem Umerov—from their key posts has left the President dangerously isolated.

The Fall of the 'Green Cardinal': Andriy Yermak, the Head of the Presidential Office and arguably the second most powerful man in Ukraine, resigned on November 28, 2025, following anti-corruption raids on his home. Yermak was Zelenskyy’s gatekeeper, his "real power broker," and the architect of his domestic control. His departure leaves a vacuum that cannot easily be filled.

The Shifting of Umerov: On the other flank was Rustem Umerov, a representative of the Crimean Tatar people and a key bridge to the Islamic world. Umerov was removed from the Ministry of Defense on July 17, 2025, and shifted to the National Security and Defense Council. While he remains in the administration leading peace talks in Washington, his removal from the Defense Ministry—an executive role with control over the military budget and logistics—strips Zelenskyy of a trusted loyalist at the helm of the army.

Anatomy of a Coup Attempt

Analysts suggest that Russia’s current "Plan B" consists of three distinct phases:

1. Delegitimization: Putin’s refusal to recognize the administration, labeling them as usurpers.

2. Decapitation of Support: The neutralization of strong figures like Yermak and Umerov through corruption scandals or administrative reshuffles, leaving Zelenskyy without his "enforcers."

3. Internal Chaos: Inciting the military or the public to rise against a "corrupt and illegitimate" leader.

Conclusion: The Psychological Winter

Russia is attempting to achieve through political subversion what it could not achieve with tanks. By declaring the diplomatic table "meaningless," Putin is effectively telling the Ukrainian elite that the only way to end the war is to change the leadership in Kyiv.

For Zelenskyy, the coming winter poses a threat far greater than Russian frost or artillery. The danger now lies within the void left by his departing allies and the "legitimacy trap" set by Moscow. The question is no longer just whether Ukraine can hold the line, but whether its government can hold itself together.

Yusuf İnan 

www.sehitlerolmez.com

Yusuf İnan is a journalist and writer.
He serves as Editor-in-Chief of WiseNewsPress.com, SehitlerOlmez.com, and YerelGundem.com.
He specializes in strategic and political analysis on Turkish and global affairs.