Resigned US official Joe Kent warned months ago: China will win

By Ahmet Taş | Wise News Press

WASHINGTON, UNITED STATES — The strategic warnings made months ago by Joe Kent, the US National Counterterrorism Director who resigned because he did not support the ongoing war with Iran, have resurfaced, highlighting his prediction that this military move would ultimately benefit China.

Accused by US President Donald Trump of being "weak on security" during a statement in the Oval Office, it has emerged that Kent had actually foreseen the potentially devastating consequences of Washington's new military adventure in the Middle East months in advance. According to details reported by KARAR, Kent's comprehensive interview with journalist Tucker Carlson in January 2024 lays bare how wasting American military power on the wrong front could profoundly shake the global balance of power in the Asia-Pacific.

"Iran is not Afghanistan, it's a deep-rooted empire"

Arguing months ago that the war would turn into a new and inescapable quagmire in the Middle East, former director Kent emphasized in the interview that hawkish politicians in Washington were misreading Iran's state structure and social dynamics. Stating that an all-out war with Iran would be a "devastating scenario" for the US, Kent drew attention to the limits of military operations with these striking assessments:

"There are many people who do not fully understand the effects of a war with Iran on the US. Iran is not a place like Afghanistan; it is a real nation-state. In the short term, the results would be very bloody. I have no doubt that we can penetrate their air defenses and conduct a 'shock and awe' operation. However, as we saw in Iraq, such operations do not work in the long run."

The illusion of regime change and social cohesion

Warning that "regime change" goals, which are frequently discussed in American foreign policy, would backfire in the case of Iran, Kent underlined that the Tehran administration has a deep-rooted historical background. Stating that Iran comes from a historical imperial tradition and has a more established state mind than many other actors in the modern Middle East, Kent pointed out the social consequences of foreign interventions.

He argued that although it currently has internal problems and difficulties with the Ayatollah administration, a large-scale military attack from the outside would unite even the opposition public around their current leaders. According to Kent, this situation, far from weakening the regime, will draw the Iranian people to a more revolutionary line and cause Iran-backed proxy forces operating in the region to multiply their attacks against American targets.

Global alliances and China as the real winner

The most striking part of Joe Kent's analysis, which resonates in the corridors of Washington today, was his warning that the war would not be limited to the Middle East geography but would combine with the Russia-China axis and collapse US dominance in the Pacific. Stating that in the long run, the eastern bloc alliance structure, which gained momentum after Russian President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine, would come into play, Kent drew attention to the fact that the real soft underbelly of the US is its economy and the Asia-Pacific border:

"China is a huge player in this equation, and we are seriously vulnerable to China. They control a large part of our economy, manufacturing, and Wall Street. The Chinese want access to Iranian oil. The Biden administration ending US energy independence and empowering liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporters made this alliance effective."

Opening Pandora's box and isolationism

The basis of the "America First" and military isolationism-oriented foreign policy vision that Kent adopted in the process leading to his resignation, and which is familiar from President Trump's first term, is the belief that Washington is consuming its limited economic and military resources on the wrong fronts. The former Director stated that a long-term war to be waged against Iran is the biggest geopolitical dream of the Beijing administration, describing the situation as a dangerous gamble.

Stating that China would gladly watch from the sidelines as American military and industrial capacity is depleted in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, Kent warned that this would leave the Pacific border extremely vulnerable to Chinese aggression. Describing this strategic blindness as pure madness, Kent concluded his warnings from months ago with this historical question: "This is pure madness and opening Pandora's box. What will the American people gain from this war?"

How decision-makers in Washington will revise their Middle East strategies following this resignation remains uncertain.

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