Russia-Ukraine war casualties projected to reach 2 million

BY AHMET TAŞ | WISE NEWS PRESS

WASHINGTON, D.C. — Combined military casualties in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war are projected to reach the staggering milestone of 2 million by spring 2026, according to a recent report by a Washington-based think tank.

The study, published by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), highlights that Russia is currently experiencing its highest military losses since World War II. As the conflict nears its fourth anniversary, data suggests that both sides have paid an extraordinary human price for minimal territorial shifts, transitioning into a brutal "war of attrition".

Historic losses for a major power

According to the CSIS report, Russia suffered an estimated 1.2 million casualties between February 2022 and December 2025. This figure includes approximately 325,000 confirmed military deaths. Analysts noted that no major power has sustained losses of this magnitude since 1945, suggesting that despite claims of progress, Russia is facing a significant decline in its status as a global military power.

In response to these findings, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated on Wednesday that the report should not be considered "reliable information". Peskov emphasized that only the Russian Ministry of Defense is authorized to share casualty data. However, the Ministry has not updated its official death toll since September 2022, when it claimed only 6,000 soldiers had been killed.

Ukraine's casualty projections

While smaller in population and military scale, Ukraine has also faced devastating losses. The CSIS report estimates Ukrainian military casualties between 500,000 and 600,000, with a death toll potentially reaching as high as 140,000.

The Ukrainian government did not immediately comment on the specific figures in the report. However, in an interview in February 2025, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that more than 46,000 Ukrainian soldiers had lost their lives since the start of the full-scale invasion. The report's estimates were compiled through a combination of CSIS analysis, data from the independent Russian news outlet Mediazona, UK government projections, and interviews with various state officials.

The reality of a "war of attrition"

The report describes a battlefield where progress is measured in meters rather than kilometers. Although Russian forces seized the initiative in 2024, their advance has remained excruciatingly slow along the 1,000-kilometer front line.

• Advance Speed: During major offensives, Russian forces have averaged between 15 and 70 meters of progress per day.

  
  

• Historical Context: This rate of advance is noted as being no faster than almost any major offensive campaign within the last century.

• Troop Deployment: Russian President Vladimir Putin recently stated that 700,000 Russian troops are currently active in the conflict zone, a figure that remains difficult to verify independently.

Experts suggest that Putin is in no rush to reach a diplomatic solution, despite the immense strain on his military resources. As both nations continue to mobilize, the total human cost of the conflict is expected to hit the 1.8 million mark shortly before reaching 2 million by the spring.

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