Swedish minister: No sign of new Middle East refugee influx

By Ahmet Taş | Wise News Press

BRUSSELS, BELGIUM — Following a crucial meeting of European Union (EU) interior ministers focused on the rapidly escalating conflict in the Middle East, Swedish Migration Minister Johan Forssell warned that the bloc "cannot handle a new refugee crisis".

Speaking to Europe Today, Forssell noted that while there are currently "no signs" of an imminent large-scale refugee influx heading toward Europe from the region, historical precedent indicates that "things can change very quickly".

"We learned from the chaos of 2015"

Recalling the massive demographic shift a decade ago, Forssell highlighted that over a million people arrived in Europe in 2015 due to the devastating conflicts in Syria, Afghanistan, and Iraq. "We cannot repeat what we experienced ten years ago. We cannot allow a new refugee crisis. We are still struggling with many of the challenges and problems we saw in 2015," he stated.

Despite these concerns, the Swedish minister argued that Europe has made significant progress since the "chaos" of its previous migration system and is now much better equipped and prepared for a potential new surge of asylum seekers.

Forssell pointed to the EU Pact on Migration and Asylum, agreed upon in 2023 and scheduled to come into force in June, as a key factor making the European Union more resilient against future challenges. The pact introduces a system of "mandatory solidarity," allowing southern member states, which traditionally face the brunt of migration pressure, to relocate asylum seekers to other EU nations or receive financial and operational assistance. Furthermore, the legislation includes a dedicated crisis mechanism that can be swiftly activated in the event of a sudden and large-scale refugee influx.

Conversely, the International Organization for Migration (IOM), a UN agency, issued a stark warning following the recent US and Israeli attacks on Iran and subsequent retaliations. The IOM cautioned that the widening regional conflict significantly elevates the risk of a new wave of displacement. According to IOM data, more than 19 million people are already internally displaced in the region due to ongoing conflicts, violence, and disasters.

Deportation initiative for convicted refugees

During the meeting, Sweden also introduced a new migration policy initiative. Minister Forssell presented a Swedish-led proposal aimed at facilitating the deportation of refugees convicted of serious sexual offenses from EU countries, a move that would require altering the application of the 1951 Geneva Refugee Convention.

Sweden is advocating for the development of new guidelines for the convention to ensure that the "small number" of refugees who commit such egregious crimes can be sent back to their home countries. A Swedish document presented to EU ministers outlined the rationale: 

"The vast majority of refugees and migrants make a positive contribution to our societies (...) However, a small portion commits serious crimes. This situation can both undermine public support for asylum systems and have negative effects on refugees and migrants who follow the rules."

Forssell labeled a recent case in Sweden "scandalous," where a court of appeals blocked the deportation of an individual sentenced to four years in prison for rape. While acknowledging the principle of non-refoulement, which forbids returning refugees to countries where they might face war or persecution, Forssell maintained his stance.

"I think the real scandal, and what I think most people agree with me on, is this: It is inconceivable that someone who committed the crime of rape and was sentenced to four years in prison is not deported. So we have to take the issue step by step. The guidelines need to be changed for this to happen," he concluded.

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