Mustafa Balbay: Syria's geopolitical game is being reset

WISE NEWS PRESS / ANKARA, TURKIYE

Journalist Mustafa Balbay has characterized the January 18 agreement between the Damascus administration and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDG), reportedly reached under a U.S. umbrella, as a new "milestone" that signals a profound shift in regional power dynamics.

Writing in his latest column, Balbay emphasized that the 15-year-long Syrian civil war has entered a transformative phase following the collapse of the Assad regime in late 2024. According to Balbay, the recent local "rapprochement" follows a broader consensus reached in Paris earlier this month between Damascus, Israel, and the United States, suggesting that the Syrian theater is being prepared for a much larger strategic operation targeting regional actors.

The six-point reality of the Damascus-SDG accord

Balbay outlined the current situation through six key points, noting that the SDG has agreed to withdraw to the east of the Euphrates and integrate into the central government. In exchange, Damascus has reportedly recognized Kurds as an inseparable part of Syria, promising full citizenship rights. Furthermore, Balbay noted that the departure of non-Syrian PKK forces from the country is a core component of this new plan. However, he urged caution, recalling that previous agreements, such as the March 2025 memorandum between Ahmed Shara and Mazlum Abdi, failed to materialize despite similar high-level signatures.

Connection to potential operations against Iran

The analysis suggests that the sudden "reconciliation" in Syria may be intrinsically linked to a mid-term strategy to marginalize Iran's influence. Balbay argued that Iran has been forced to retreat from various Middle Eastern footholds, with Lebanon and Syria being the final links in that chain. "The steps in Syria show that the game is being reset. Once Iran is targeted, the aim is to ensure nothing else shadows that focus," Balbay wrote, indicating that while the U.S. and Israel agree on the need for a regime shift in Tehran, they remain divided on the specific methods and eventual outcomes.

A call for realistic regional strategy over "victory" rhetoric

Addressing domestic political reactions in Türkiye, Balbay criticized the polarized views ranging from fears of division to "victory" celebrations in pro-government media. He warned that the SDG would likely maintain an autonomous presence in the Hasakah region despite the integration rhetoric. Balbay concluded by calling for a peace-centered regional strategy that prevents frequent U.S. intervention, stressing that Türkiye must look beyond immediate "victory shouts" to understand the broader implications of the "reset" occurring in its southern neighbor.

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