Poland's Tusk warns of Polexit threat after defense loan veto

By Yusuf İnan | Wise News Press

WARSAW, POLAND — Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has warned that the threat of Poland leaving the European Union is becoming a real possibility amid the rise of extreme right-wing and populist political movements in the country.

The political crisis, triggered by a presidential veto on a €44 billion EU defense loan, has reignited the "Polexit" debate, which is being further fueled by deepfake social media campaigns aimed at swaying public opinion against the bloc.

Veto triggers political crisis

Tusk, who has been working to mend relations between Warsaw and Brussels, took political and legal steps to override the veto by President Karol Nawrocki, a former historian affiliated with the right-wing populist Law and Justice (PiS) party. Nawrocki recently blocked legislation that would have secured a €44 billion defense loan for Poland under the EU's SAFE program.

In a statement on his X account, Tusk argued that Russia, "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) supporters in the United States, and the European right led by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban want to destroy the EU.

"Leaving the bloc would be a disaster for Poland. I will do everything to stop them," Tusk stated, emphasizing his commitment to maintaining Poland's place in Europe.

AI-driven disinformation campaigns

The political tension has quickly spilled over into the digital realm. Recently, AI-generated TikTok videos featuring young Polish women advocating for an EU exit and echoing far-right rhetoric have circulated widely.

Polish independent fact-checking organizations have debunked these videos, proving them to be fake, yet they have still garnered thousands of views. Experts suggest the coordinated campaign aims to increase anti-EU sentiment and deepen societal polarization among the younger generation.

The threat of a legal Polexit

Despite the online and political uproar, there are currently no formal legal steps being taken to remove Poland from the EU. As seen during the Brexit process, a member state must formally trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty to leave the bloc, a step the Warsaw administration has not taken. Tusk himself actually received the UK's Article 50 letter in 2017 while serving as European Council President.

However, analysts point to a potential "legal Polexit" driven by the right-wing opposition's efforts to hinder integration and reject EU laws. The most concrete example occurred in 2021 when Poland's Constitutional Tribunal ruled certain EU laws unconstitutional, asserting the supremacy of domestic law. While the PiS party advocates for the EU to remain strictly a trading bloc, the smaller far-right Confederation party explicitly demands an exit.

Public strongly supports EU membership

Despite the fierce political polarization, survey data reveals that the vast majority of the public wants to remain in the bloc. According to a recent study by the Polish Public Opinion Research Center (CBOS), 82% of citizens strongly support EU membership, while only 14% oppose it.

However, the public is divided on the preferred level of integration. Among the respondents, 26% demand deeper ties with the EU, while 23% want more national autonomy, and 32% prefer the status quo. Furthermore, 62% of Poles believe a hypothetical Polexit would bring more losses than gains, with only 9% thinking an exit would benefit the country overall.

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