US gains ground in South Caucasus as Russia’s influence wanes

BY AHMET TAŞ | WISE NEWS PRESS 

 ANKARA, TÜRKİYE —  US Vice President Vance’s recent high-level visits to Armenia and Azerbaijan have solidified Washington’s growing influence in the South Caucasus, effectively stepping into a regional power vacuum created by Russia’s ongoing focus on the war in Ukraine.

The diplomatic surge follows years of systematic shifts where Russia’s military and political attention drifted toward Europe, allowing the United States to spearhead major economic and security initiatives. Central to this strategy is the transformation of the Zengezur Corridor into the "Trump Route" (TRIPP) and significant investment packages aimed at decoupling regional states from Moscow's long-standing orbit.

Landmark visits to Yerevan and Baku

Vice President Vance's visit to Yerevan marks the highest-level US presence in the country since 2012. During his meetings with Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Washington promised $9 billion in nuclear services and $11 million in reconnaissance drone technology. These agreements are widely seen as efforts to reduce Moscow's historical grip on Armenia’s military and energy sectors. Furthermore, the US pledged explicit support for Pashinyan ahead of the June parliamentary elections to counter pro-Russian opposition and religious factions.

In Baku, the tone was equally strategic. President Ilham Aliyev and Vice President Vance discussed a new strategic partnership, framing Azerbaijan as a "primary partner" for transport routes connecting the Caucasus and the Caspian Sea to Central Asia. This cooperation is expected to streamline the sale of Azerbaijani oil and gas to Western markets.

The "Trump Route" (TRIPP) Initiative

The foundation of this geopolitical shift lies in the 2025 diplomatic efforts led by US Ambassador Barrack. A series of meetings between Turkish President Erdoğan, Azerbaijani President Aliyev, and Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan throughout June 2025 laid the groundwork for turning the Zengezur Corridor into the "Trump Route" (TRIPP). This plan was finalized during a White House summit in August 2025, effectively placing the South Caucasus under a new Western-led economic framework.

Regional anxieties: Iran and Russia

While Washington celebrates its progress, Tehran remains deeply anxious. Analysts suggest that the strengthening of US influence on Iran's northern borders may serve as a precursor for future operations against the Islamic Republic. The TRIPP project has already caused significant concern in Tehran, potentially isolating Iran from regional trade routes.

Moscow’s reaction is divided. While some Kremlin circles view the US surge as a direct threat to the Putin-Trump rapport, radical nationalist factions in Russia are calling for Moscow to reassert its military leverage in Armenia and Georgia to disrupt the American "game." Historically, the Kremlin has benefited from the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict; however, the lack of a Russian-brokered peace has now allowed the US to take the lead in stabilization efforts.

The exclusion of Georgia

Notably, Georgia remains largely excluded from the current US-led regional trade and transport initiatives. This isolation follows the 2024 cancellation of the US-Georgia strategic partnership after Tbilisi pivoted toward Moscow and away from European Union integration. Unless Tbilisi reverses its current trajectory, it appears the "Trump Route" will continue to bypass the country in favor of more Western-aligned partners.

While the increased US presence aims to solidify a permanent peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan, historical precedent suggests that large-scale interventions in such sensitive regions often carry long-term complexities that have yet to fully unfold.

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