Why is Russia remaining silent on the attacks against Iran?

By Ahmet Taş | Wise News Press

MOSCOW, RUSSIA — Following the recent attacks by the United States and Israel on Iran, Russia's lack of active military support for its ally Tehran has raised questions about the limits of their strategic partnership.

While Moscow quickly issued verbal condemnations at the United Nations, experts suggest that Russia's restrained stance stems from a complex mix of economic interests, the ongoing war in Ukraine, and the absence of a formal mutual defense treaty.

Unmet expectations in Tehran

Shortly after the attacks began on Saturday, Russia's Permanent Representative to the UN, Vassily Nebenzia, described the US-Israeli operation as "armed aggression against a sovereign and independent UN member state". However, when asked about providing active support, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that no such request had been relayed by Iran.

International relations analyst Mojtaba Hashemi noted that despite the lack of a defense treaty, Tehran expected tangible political and military backing from Moscow, including enhanced military-technical cooperation, intelligence sharing, and a clear deterrent message. Hashemi added that the Iranian regime's calculations in this regard proved incorrect.

According to Mohammad Ghaedi, a faculty member at George Washington University, this lack of significant support is not surprising to Iranian leaders due to long-standing historical skepticism. Ghaedi recalled past remarks by Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, who previously stated after the 12-day war in June 2025 that countries they considered friends did not help them in combat.

Strategic ties driven by sanctions

Analysts emphasize that the partnership between Russia and Iran lacks an ideological foundation and is primarily driven by mutual isolation. Russia and Middle East expert Nikita Smagin pointed out that while Russian politicians may not adore Iran, they view Tehran as a reliable partner because, unlike other regional actors, Iran cannot cut trade with Russia under Western pressure due to its own sanctioned status.

The economic and military ties remain crucial for Moscow:

• The two countries are collaborating on the 7,200-kilometer North-South Transport Corridor, which is reportedly 75 percent complete and vital for Russia to bypass traditional transit routes.

• Julian Waller from the Center for Naval Analyses (CNA) highlighted that Iranian-made Shahed drones have played a significant role in Russia's war efforts in Ukraine since 2023.

• Gregoire Roos from Chatham House noted that Iran also acts as a mentor to Russia, sharing its extensive experience in bypassing international sanctions.

Potential benefits and long-term risks

Experts suggest that a prolonged conflict in the Middle East could offer certain tactical advantages for Moscow. Roos argued that the media's attention would shift away from Ukraine, and Washington would struggle to maintain a second front in terms of diplomatic and military support. Furthermore, Waller noted that if oil and gas prices rise due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, energy-exporting Russia would benefit immensely, potentially allowing Moscow to lower domestic taxes used to fund the Ukraine war.

Despite these short-term benefits, the collapse of the Iranian regime would represent a severe blow to Russia's geopolitical ambitions. Roos warned that losing Iran would significantly diminish Russia's influence in the Eurasian region and weaken the coalition of countries aiming to challenge Western dominance. Hashemi echoed this sentiment, stating that Russia's failure to provide sufficient support could sever the ties between the two nations, forcing both Moscow and Beijing to seek new guarantees from any subsequent Iranian government.

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